Topoclimates of coffee agroecosystem for adaptation to climate change in Cuba Topoclimates of coffee agroecosystem for adaptation to climate change in Cuba
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Abstract
Cuba is implementing the "Tarea Vida" (Task Life) State Plan to address climate change, which requires knowledge of local climatic characteristics. However, limitations persist in incorporating these characteristics into agricultural policies, hindering the adaptive management of coffee agroecosystems. This study aimed to characterize the topoclimates associated with coffee agroecosystems in the mountain ranges of central and eastern Cuba, projecting their evolution under climate change scenarios. Methodologically, the spatial delimitation of topoclimates, obtained through local climate patterns and unsupervised machine learning, was integrated with the current and future climate characterization. The characterization was performed using an assembly of five global climate models (GCMs), forced under Shared Socioeconomic Trajectories (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, using the WorldClim version 2.1 dataset. Ten topoclimates were identified, where 86% of Cuba's total coffee-growing area is concentrated: two in the Guamuhaya Massif and eight in the eastern highlands. Projections indicate increased temperatures and alterations in rainfall patterns, with a potential increase in evapotranspiration. These changes in topoclimates reduce moisture availability in coffee agroecosystems. The findings provide a scientific basis for designing effective climate change adaptation policies for the coffee sector in Cuba.
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